St. Louis Crime Reduction: Progress, Pitfalls, and the Path Forward

A version of the following commentary appeared in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

With a new mayor taking office, St. Louis begins yet another chapter in its long, uneven push toward revitalization. The challenges are familiar: population decline, economic disparity, fractured politics, and struggling public institutions.

But the most daunting task ahead may not be solving those problems—it may be changing how the city is perceived.

A recent national study published in the Journal of Business Venturing Insights surveyed more than 500 entrepreneurs and prospective employees on how they evaluate U.S. cities when deciding where to live, work, or launch a business. The researchers, Kaitlyn DeGhetto and Zachary Russell, didn’t just ask about taxes or economic conditions. They asked how people feel about cities—how safe, stable, and welcoming they seem. And in those perceptions, St. Louis landed in a troubling middle ground: not the most dangerous or dysfunctional, but clearly among the cities seen as risky, especially when it comes to safety and governance.

Out of 25 major U.S. cities, St. Louis was ranked 10th in perceived safety risk—where #1 is the most dangerous. Respondents were asked about “the likelihood that individuals’ security and physical well-being will be endangered due to the normalization of aggression and criminality.”

St. Louis fared better on other measures. It ranked 13th in perceived social risk—how inclusive or equitable a city feels—and 17th on political risk, which the study defined as the threat of erratic or self-serving government action. Still, for a city that has had three mayors in eight years, that perception may be hard to shake.

These findings won’t surprise many locals. But they carry weight outside city borders. Perception—fair or not—influences investment decisions. Employers notice. So do renters, families, and job seekers trying to choose between St. Louis and cities like Charlotte, Austin, or Nashville.

This is the modern challenge for post-industrial cities. It’s no longer enough to compete on cost of living or square footage. Cities are now judged on vibes—by the headlines they generate, the stories residents share on social media, the narratives that take root far from City Hall. And while that may seem superficial, it’s anything but. In an economy increasingly driven by talent and mobility, a city’s reputation can make or break its efforts to attract the very people and businesses needed to fuel a turnaround. The difference here is that St. Louis must deliver not with soccer stadiums or entertainment districts, but with basic services.

We can and should debate the objective data—what’s truly happening on our streets, whether crime is up or down, and how we compare nationally. In the immediate past, St. Louis has seen reductions in certain types of crime. But the more difficult task—the one that falls squarely on the shoulders of the new administration—is shaping what people believe about the city in the first place.

There will be a temptation to reach for slogans or launch rebranding campaigns. But what’s needed is substantive progress—not just on public safety, but in how city government performs. That means competent service delivery, clear budgeting, and leadership that resists the pull of yesterday’s political fights in favor of building civic trust and shared purpose.

In the DeGhetto and Russell study, entrepreneurs ranked safety risk as their top concern—above taxes or regulatory burdens. Conservative respondents emphasized crime and political dysfunction. Liberal respondents focused more on social inclusion. That tells us something important: Everyone is watching, but they’re seeing different things.

For St. Louis, that means the mayor can’t govern just for applause from any one audience. The challenge is to build broad confidence. Do people believe this city is safe? Do they believe it’s run competently? Do they see a place where they and their children can thrive?

The answers may be shaped as much by tone and transparency as by policy. But they begin, inevitably, with what city leaders do to promote public safety—and just as importantly, what people think they’re doing.

Perception isn’t everything. But for a city trying to reverse decades of loss, it’s not enough to make progress—it has to look like progress, too.